Belief as Willingness to Bet

We investigate modal logics of high probability having two unary modal operators: an operator $K$ expressing probabilistic certainty and an operator $B$ expressing probability exceeding a fixed rational threshold $c\geq\frac 12$. Identifying knowledge with the former and belief with the latter, we may think of $c$ as the agent's betting threshold, which leads to the motto "belief is willingness to bet." The logic $\mathsf{KB.5}$ for $c=\frac 12$ has an $\mathsf{S5}$ $K$ modality along with a sub-normal $B$ modality that extends the minimal modal logic $\mathsf{EMND45}$ by way of four schemes relating $K$ and $B$, one of which is a complex scheme arising out of a theorem due to Scott. Lenzen was the first to use Scott's theorem to show that a version of this logic is sound and complete for the probability interpretation. We reformulate Lenzen's results and present them here in a modern and accessible form. In addition, we introduce a new epistemic neighborhood semantics that will be more familiar to modern modal logicians. Using Scott's theorem, we provide the Lenzen-derivative properties that must be imposed on finite epistemic neighborhood models so as to guarantee the existence of a probability measure respecting the neighborhood function in the appropriate way for threshold $c=\frac 12$. This yields a link between probabilistic and modal neighborhood semantics that we hope will be of use in future work on modal logics of qualitative probability. We leave open the question of which properties must be imposed on finite epistemic neighborhood models so as to guarantee existence of an appropriate probability measure for thresholds $c\neq\frac 12$.Comment: Removed date from v1 to avoid confusion on citation/reference, otherwise identical to v

PDL as a Multi-Agent Strategy Logic

Propositional Dynamic Logic or PDL was invented as a logic for reasoning about regular programming constructs. We propose a new perspective on PDL as a multi-agent strategic logic (MASL). This logic for strategic reasoning has group strategies as first class citizens, and brings game logic closer to standard modal logic. We demonstrate that MASL can express key notions of game theory, social choice theory and voting theory in a natural way, we give a sound and complete proof system for MASL, and we show that MASL encodes coalition logic. Next, we extend the language to epistemic multi-agent strategic logic (EMASL), we give examples of what it can express, we propose to use it for posing new questions in epistemic social choice theory, and we give a calculus for reasoning about a natural class of epistemic game models. We end by listing avenues for future research and by tracing connections to a number of other logics for reasoning about strategies.Comment: 10 pages, Poster presentation at TARK 2013 (arXiv:1310.6382) http://www.tark.or

Yet More Modal Logics of Preference Change and Belief Revision

We contrast Bonanno's `Belief Revision in a Temporal Framework' \cite{Bonanno07:briatfTV} with preference change and belief revision from the perspective of dynamic epistemic logic (DEL). For that, we extend the logic of communic

Perception and Change in Update Logic

Abstract Three key ways of updating one's knowledge are (i) perception of states of affairs, e.g., seeing with one's own eyes that something is the case, (ii) recep- tion of messages, e.g., being told that something is the case, and (iii) drawing new conclusions from known facts. If one represents knowledge by means of Kripke models, the implicit assumption is that drawing conclusions is immediate. This as- sumption of logical omniscience is a useful abstraction. It leaves the distinction between (i) and (ii) to be accounted for. In current versions of Update Logic (Dy- namic Epistemic Logic, Logic of Communication and Change) perception and mes- sage reception are not distinguished. This paper proposes an extension of Update Logic that makes this distinction explicit. The logic deals with three kinds of up- dates: announcements, changes of the world, and observations about the world in the presence of witnesses. The resulting logic is shown to be complete by means of a reduction to epistemic propositional dynamic logic by a well known method

Varieties of Belief and Probability

For reasoning about uncertain situations, we have probability theory, and we have logics of knowledge and belief. How does elementary probability theory relate to epistemic logic and the logic of belief? The paper focuses on the notion of betting belief, and interprets a language for knowledge and belief in two kinds of models: epistemic neighbourhood models and epistemic probability models. It is shown that the first class of models is more general in the sense that every probability model gives rise to a neighbourhood model, but not vice versa. The basic calculus of knowledge and betting belief is incomplete for probability models. These formal results were obtained in Van Eijck and Renne [9]

Dynamic reasoning without variables

A variable free notation for dynamic logic is proposed which takes its cue from De Bruijn's variable free notation for lambda calculus. De Bruijn indexing replaces variables by indices which indicate the distance to their binders. We propose to use reverse De Bruijn indexing, which works almost the same, only now the indices refer to the depth of the binding operator in the formula. The resulting system is analysed at length and applied to a new rational reconstruction of discourse representation theory. It is argued that the present system of dynamic logic without variables provides an explicit account of anaphoric context and yields new insight into the dynamics of anaphoric linking in reasoning. A calculus for dynamic reasoning with anaphora is presented and its soundness and completeness are established